UK Aid Spending to Miss 2027 Target by £400m

British taxpayers will see international aid spending fall below government targets by an estimated £400 million in 2027. The Center for Global Development (CGD) calculated that the UK is on track to miss its specific spending goal due to higher-than-expected inflation and recent budget adjustments.

The Treasury’s central forecast implies that aid spending in 2027 will be £410 million lower than originally planned. This results in a spending level of just 0.29% of national income. The CGD noted that a larger shortfall of £580 million is also a plausible outcome. Even the most conservative estimates point to a gap of £250 million.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described these figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. He stated that closing a gap of £400 million would be enough to halve planned cuts to Africa. Mitchell warned that these cuts are likely to cost thousands of lives and represent a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent.

The CGD identified two primary drivers for the financial gap. Inflation has risen faster than predicted, meaning national income is larger than it was at the time of the 2025 spending review. Additionally, a 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office contributed to the shortfall. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week’s budget to avoid missing a target.

The 2027 goal of 0.3% is lower than the 0.7% promised in Labour’s election manifesto. Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up money for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in the upcoming budget. She argued that hitting the reduced target is a minimum requirement for the government.

Anderson noted that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue. She pointed to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones as tangible consequences of the funding gap.

Charities have repeatedly warned that deep aid cuts will damage children’s education and raise the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Figures released by the FCDO in September showed that the cuts under the current government hit the world’s poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million.

The UK’s overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024. This represents a fall of £987 million. The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and the World Bank’s development arm. It has also maintained humanitarian support levels.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9 billion a year to £1 billion. This level would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the UN and World Bank. An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson stated that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.