Lula secures fourth presidency after digital surge turns tight Brazilian race

Brazilian voters have elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to a fourth nonconsecutive term as president. The Workers' Party incumbent won the runoff against far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of the vote, compared to 48.21% for his opponent. The final margin was approximately 4.3 million votes out of 159 million cast. Results were declared shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026.

The victory reversed the outcome of the first round held earlier in October. In that initial ballot, Flávio Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes to Lula’s 53.8 million. No first-round runner-up in Brazil since the return of democracy in 1985 had previously won the second ballot. Polls narrowed sharply in the weeks between votes, with the gap shrinking to fractions of a percentage point before the final count.

Several tactical shifts contributed to the reversal. The first round saw a record abstention rate of 21%, which disproportionately affected lower-income voters who tend to support Lula. Progressives mobilized through a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's army" to spread supportive content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro’s for the first time during the campaign.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal challenges, including a report by the magazine Piauí claiming Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. Dozen watchdog groups also alleged that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign on its platforms. Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to prevent "unequal treatment" of candidates, though the company called the allegations "false and unfounded." Lula described his victory as "a defeat for denialism."

External factors also influenced the race. President Donald Trump had called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a "witch-hunt" and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Lula positioned himself as a counterweight to Trump’s "colonial" designs while pursuing a multilateral foreign policy that balances relations with the US, China, and Russia. He also declined invitations to join a coalition of Latin American countries conducting military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the election, citing the decision to extend voting hours by two hours. He stated it was "impossible to concede the election result." Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips noted that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s win and suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.