640,000 First-Time Israelis Could Decide 12 Knesset Seats

Six hundred and forty thousand Israelis aged 18 to 22 will cast their first ballots in the national election on Tuesday, October 27. The Israel Democracy Institute projects that this demographic accounts for nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their voting patterns could determine the outcome for as many as 12 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

The IDI co-sponsored an event with the Yigal Allon Center in a Tel Aviv auditorium to address this group. More than 1,000 first-time voters attended, many of whom are enrolled in pre-military programs. Tammy Hoffman, who heads the IDI's education policy program, noted that Israel's high birth rate contributes to a young electorate. She stated that high turnout, which her research suggests is likely, will allow these voters to influence the final seat count.

Surveys conducted by the IDI in May indicate strong intent to vote among these young citizens. Between 80% and 95% of prospective Jewish and Arab first-time voters said they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents indicated they would vote. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain to vote and another 19% thought they would.

National security and the cost of living rank as the top concerns for these voters across both population groups. Hoffman attributed this focus to the fact that these individuals were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. She described them as being worried about their future.

Political leanings within this group remain varied. An N12 poll from September 23 found that 74% of young people identify as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identify as left-wing or center-left. In that survey, 16% intended to vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools showed support for Yashar and Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with less support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's party.

Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, is preparing to vote for either the Democrats or Yashar. Both parties belong to the opposition change bloc, which seeks to remove Netanyahu, who has led the government since 2009 with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. Chernyvsky, who is in an army preparation program in the Negev, said she wants to change the future of the country.

Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to back the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He cited the need for a strong, secure Israel as his primary motivation. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc, prioritizing mandatory IDF service for ultra-Orthodox men and lower living costs. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, aims to support an Arab party focused on closing resource gaps and tackling crime.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist who spoke under IDF anonymity rules, will vote for the Democrats on economic grounds. He cited the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing as key factors. These individual choices reflect the broader uncertainty surrounding how this large cohort will vote on Tuesday.